Another week of 15-5, which puts me at 42-18 overall, but now we enter conference play and things start to get tough. -- Due to my flu-like symptoms and sickness I was unable to give any game breakdowns so there's just picks this week. Regular picks and breakdowns will resume next week.
#4 Ole Miss OVER South Carolina
#7 LSU OVER Mississippi State
#14 Cincinnati OVER Fresno State
#18 Florida State OVER South Florida
Southern Miss OVER #20 Kansas*
Georgia Tech OVER @ #22 North Carolina*
#3 Alabama OVER Arkansas
#6 Cal OVER Oregon
#11 Virginia Tech OVER #9 Miami*
#13 Ohio State OVER Illinois
Clemson OVER #15 TCU*
Pitt OVER NC State
#1 Florida OVER Kentucky
#8 Boise State OVER Bowling Green
#21 Georgia OVER Arizona State
Oregon State OVER Arizona
#5 Penn State OVER Iowa
Notre Dame OVER Purdue
#24 Washington OVER Stanford*
Texas Tech OVER #17 Houston*
*Denotes Upset
Sunday, September 20, 2009
Monday, September 14, 2009
Week 3 CFB
I know it's still early so I can get some easy wins, but I feel pretty good going 15-5 in week 2. This improves my overall record to 27-13. Week 3
14 Georgia Tech (2-0) @ 20 Miami (1-0)
Both of these teams are coming off close, in-conference wins where they needed late scores to secure a victory. In Georgia Tech's case, they allowed a 24-0 lead to slip away to Clemson, who stormed back with 27 straight points to take a three point lead before back-to-back Yellow Jacket's field goals gave Tech a 30-27 win at home. Had it not been for a punt return touchdown and a fake field goal touchdown I'm not sure GT would have been able to win this game. Clemson's defense virtually shut down All-American RB Jonathan Dwyer and QB Josh Nesbitt, both on the ground and through the air. Transfer Anthony Allen rushed for 120+ yards, including an 82 yard score on GT's second play from scrimmage. Now, with all that being said, they still got a win and are 1-0 in the ACC. As for Miami, a back and forth game in Tallahassee vs. Florida State saw sophomore QB Jacory Harris orchestrate two late touchdown drives to steal a 38-34 win. The 'Canes were idle this past weekend and now return home to host the Yellow Jackets. Surprisingly, Miami's defense did not look very good vs. FSU and will need to clamp down in order to win this game. Last year, GT smoked Miami 41-23 while rushing for 476 yards and an 8.4 ypc average. Dwyer ran for 128 yards and two touchdowns on only 10 carries. If GT is able to get the running game going again this year it could be another long game for the 'Canes. I like Georgia Tech to control the ball, the line of scrimmage, and ultimately the game for the W.
8 Cal (2-0) @ Minnesota (1-1)
Minnesota was being touted as one of the dark horse teams in the Big 10 who had the talent and experience to make noise in the conference. However, despite the 2-0 record, the Gophers have looked very unimpressive. A 23-20 overtime win @ Syracuse was an okay road win but only a 20-13 home win vs. Air Force didn't look all that great. Now, Minnesota has a big test again at home against a high-powered offense in Cal. Heisman hopeful RB Jahvid Best has been running wild in the first two games despite not playing full games because they were blowouts. Best ran for 137 yards and two TDs in a 52-13 win vs. Maryland and then ran for 144 yards and a touchdown and added a receiving touchdown in a 59-7 beat down of Eastern Washington. I think Best will run wild for a third game and bolster his Heisman resume en route to a win on the road.
Tennessee (1-1) @ 1 Florida (2-0)
There's too much that can be said about this game. Florida has been licking their chops ever since Lane Kiffin took over as coach and ran his mouth at his press conference at Tennessee. Florida has rolled over their first two opponents by a combined score of 118-9. The defense is the best in the nation and has more depth than possibly any defense ever. Two-deep at every single defensive position and incoming freshmen who can make plays. Last season Florida went up to Rocky Top and dominated in a 30-6 win. This season Tennessee is coming off a home loss to UCLA in which the offense struggled mightily and only mustered 15 points. The defense gave up a late touchdown drive the Bruins which cost them the game. The best advice for the Vols may to just make sure they keep their mouths shut and don't give Florida any more bulletin board material because if they do this one may get even uglier than anticipated. The Gators will win this one in the swamp by at least 30 points.
The rest of my picks:
3 USC (2-0) OVER Washington (1-1)
13 Virginia Tech (1-1) OVER 19 Nebraska (2-0)
18 Utah (2-0) OVER Oregon (1-1)
17 Cincinnati (2-0) OVER Oregon State (2-0)
2 Texas (2-0) OVER Texas Tech (2-0)
10 Boise State (2-0) OVER Fresno State (1-1)
11 Ohio State (1-1) OVER Toledo (1-1)
24 North Carolina (2-0) OVER East Carolina (1-1)
7 BYU (2-0) OVER Florida State (1-1)
23 Georgia (1-1) OVER Arkansas (1-0)
UCLA (2-0) OVER Kansas State (1-1)
Auburn (2-0) OVER West Virginia (2-0)
Notre Dame (1-1) OVER Michigan State (1-1)
Clemson (1-1) OVER Boston College (2-0)
Kentucky (1-0) OVER Louisville (1-0)
12 Oklahoma (1-1) OVER Tulsa (2-0)
Baylor (1-0) OVER UConn (1-1)
14 Georgia Tech (2-0) @ 20 Miami (1-0)
Both of these teams are coming off close, in-conference wins where they needed late scores to secure a victory. In Georgia Tech's case, they allowed a 24-0 lead to slip away to Clemson, who stormed back with 27 straight points to take a three point lead before back-to-back Yellow Jacket's field goals gave Tech a 30-27 win at home. Had it not been for a punt return touchdown and a fake field goal touchdown I'm not sure GT would have been able to win this game. Clemson's defense virtually shut down All-American RB Jonathan Dwyer and QB Josh Nesbitt, both on the ground and through the air. Transfer Anthony Allen rushed for 120+ yards, including an 82 yard score on GT's second play from scrimmage. Now, with all that being said, they still got a win and are 1-0 in the ACC. As for Miami, a back and forth game in Tallahassee vs. Florida State saw sophomore QB Jacory Harris orchestrate two late touchdown drives to steal a 38-34 win. The 'Canes were idle this past weekend and now return home to host the Yellow Jackets. Surprisingly, Miami's defense did not look very good vs. FSU and will need to clamp down in order to win this game. Last year, GT smoked Miami 41-23 while rushing for 476 yards and an 8.4 ypc average. Dwyer ran for 128 yards and two touchdowns on only 10 carries. If GT is able to get the running game going again this year it could be another long game for the 'Canes. I like Georgia Tech to control the ball, the line of scrimmage, and ultimately the game for the W.
8 Cal (2-0) @ Minnesota (1-1)
Minnesota was being touted as one of the dark horse teams in the Big 10 who had the talent and experience to make noise in the conference. However, despite the 2-0 record, the Gophers have looked very unimpressive. A 23-20 overtime win @ Syracuse was an okay road win but only a 20-13 home win vs. Air Force didn't look all that great. Now, Minnesota has a big test again at home against a high-powered offense in Cal. Heisman hopeful RB Jahvid Best has been running wild in the first two games despite not playing full games because they were blowouts. Best ran for 137 yards and two TDs in a 52-13 win vs. Maryland and then ran for 144 yards and a touchdown and added a receiving touchdown in a 59-7 beat down of Eastern Washington. I think Best will run wild for a third game and bolster his Heisman resume en route to a win on the road.
Tennessee (1-1) @ 1 Florida (2-0)
There's too much that can be said about this game. Florida has been licking their chops ever since Lane Kiffin took over as coach and ran his mouth at his press conference at Tennessee. Florida has rolled over their first two opponents by a combined score of 118-9. The defense is the best in the nation and has more depth than possibly any defense ever. Two-deep at every single defensive position and incoming freshmen who can make plays. Last season Florida went up to Rocky Top and dominated in a 30-6 win. This season Tennessee is coming off a home loss to UCLA in which the offense struggled mightily and only mustered 15 points. The defense gave up a late touchdown drive the Bruins which cost them the game. The best advice for the Vols may to just make sure they keep their mouths shut and don't give Florida any more bulletin board material because if they do this one may get even uglier than anticipated. The Gators will win this one in the swamp by at least 30 points.
The rest of my picks:
3 USC (2-0) OVER Washington (1-1)
13 Virginia Tech (1-1) OVER 19 Nebraska (2-0)
18 Utah (2-0) OVER Oregon (1-1)
17 Cincinnati (2-0) OVER Oregon State (2-0)
2 Texas (2-0) OVER Texas Tech (2-0)
10 Boise State (2-0) OVER Fresno State (1-1)
11 Ohio State (1-1) OVER Toledo (1-1)
24 North Carolina (2-0) OVER East Carolina (1-1)
7 BYU (2-0) OVER Florida State (1-1)
23 Georgia (1-1) OVER Arkansas (1-0)
UCLA (2-0) OVER Kansas State (1-1)
Auburn (2-0) OVER West Virginia (2-0)
Notre Dame (1-1) OVER Michigan State (1-1)
Clemson (1-1) OVER Boston College (2-0)
Kentucky (1-0) OVER Louisville (1-0)
12 Oklahoma (1-1) OVER Tulsa (2-0)
Baylor (1-0) OVER UConn (1-1)
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
Week 2 CFB Preview
After going a disappointing 12-8 in Week 1 I'll be looking to redeem myself here in Week 2. Here's my 20:
#19 North Carolina @ Connecticut. UNC is coming over a 40-6 drubbing of D-1AA Citadel. QB Tyler Yates didn't look very impressive in the win going 9-20 for 114 yards. He did throw two touchdowns but also a pick. The bright spot was RBs Shaun Draughn, who ran for 118 yards, and Ryan Houston who had 45 yards on only six carries and a pair of touchdowns. The Tar Heels defense is very fast and completely shut down Citadel. They will have more a challenge this week as two of UConn's RBs ran for over 100 yards. Jordan Todman ran for 157 yards and a touchdown and Andre Dixon had 100 yards. QB Zach Frazer was even less impressive than Yates, going 11-24 for only 127 yards and two touchdowns and three interceptions. I don't think there's much chance UConn is able to run wild on this defense which will lead to Frazer making even more mistakes. I like UNC.
Pittsburgh @ Buffalo. Turner Gill is one of the best coaches in America hands down. After starting 2-4 last season, he led the Bulls to a 7-5 regular season and then a historical upset of undefeated Ball State in the MAC Championship game which clinched their first bowl bid in years. A consistent underdog, Buffalo opened 2009 going to play @ UTEP as 9.5 underdogs, only to win 23-17. In a wide opened Big East, Pitt has been picked to finish in the top two or three or even to win the conference by some. The Panthers opened their season with a very impressive victory of a top FCS team in Youngstown State, who gave Ohio State trouble in their opener last year. Pitt's 38-3 victory prompted Youngstown State's coach to proclaim the Panther defense as one of the best in the country. With the loss of All-American RB LeSean McCoy, a lot of pressure was being put on the defense to step up and keep Pitt in games. Some of that pressure has been alleviated by the emergence of the diminutive freshman RB Dion Lewis. Lewis is only 5'8" 195lbs and debuted with 130 yards rushing and two touchdowns along with a receiving touchdown. Much maligned QB Bill Stull looked very good going 11-16 for 123 yards and a pair of touchdowns and an interception. Big play WR Jonathan Baldwin had 3 catches for 70 yards and will be looking for pay dirt this week for sure. The combination of the defense, Lewis, and Baldwin's big play ability will be too much to handle for Buffalo although it will be closer than people think.
Houston @ #5 Oklahoma State. Coming off one of the biggest wins in program history, Oklahoma State needs to take Houston very seriously to avoid a catastrophic upset and season-ruiner. Houston racked up over 530 yards of offense in a 55-7 pounding of FCS Northwestern State. Cougar QB Case Keenum threw for 447 yards and 4 touchdowns and was considered by some as a dark horse Heisman candidate. However, the Cowboys defense looked stellar shutting down Georgia and the Pokes offense looked even better, especially All-American WR Dez Bryant. QB Zac Robinson hooked up with Bryant for two big touchdowns, including the one that sealed the deal and made it 24-10. Houston's offense may produce some points but OK-State's offense will be way too much to handle and should produce a W.
#18 Notre Dame @ Michigan. Both teams are coming off of huge victories for their programs. ND shut out a pretty talented Nevada team 35-0 while Michigan embarrassed Western Michigan 31-7 in the midst of all the controversy with Rich Rodriguez. This is being touted as a very important game but I think that Notre Dame is going to beat Michigan up pretty good. With QB Jimmy Clausen and WRs Golden Tate and Malcolm Floyd I don't think UM has much of a chance to stop them. Defensively the Irish are coming off their first shut out in years like I said and should feast on Michigan's freshman QB Tate Forcier. Notre Dame will win big; put it in the books.
UCLA @ Tennessee. The Lane Kiffin era started just as any Vol's fan would have hoped with 63-7 win vs Western Kentucky. QB Jonathan Crompton threw for 5 touchdowns and 233 yards while RBs Montarrio Hardesty and Bryce Brown ran for 160 and 104 yards, respectively. The team ran for 380 yards as a whole and totaled 657 total yards. UCLA freshman QB Kevin Prince looked like exactly that, a freshman. He threw for 176 yards and a touchdown but also two interceptions. The defense played well in their 33-14 win vs San Diego State but will need Prince to not put them in short fields and bad situations Saturday. Rick Neuheisel has Los Angeles buzzing with the ads he's taken out about UCLA being the team in LA. He's off to a good start and could be in a good position to get a big win in SEC country with Tennessee possibly having an eye on next Saturday when they travel to the Swamp and meet the mighty Gators. I think that Kiffin will have his guys focused and they will win this one at home.
South Carolina @ #21 Georgia. These two teams are on complete opposite ends of the spectrum right now. The good news is that SC got a huge win on the road @ NC State on Thursday night and shut down star QB Russell Wilson and the Wolfpack offense to only 3 points. The bad news is that the offense was only able to produce 7 points. The defense held NC State to 133 yards of total offense. I don't care who you're playing, holding a team to 133 yards is great defense. The Gamecocks D is fast and physical. That's not good news for UGA and first year starter Joe Cox. Cox led the 'Dawgs on an 80-yard touchdown drive to start the game @ OK State but was able to muster only a field goal for nearly three and a half quarters. Unless Georgia's offense breaks out, this game is going to be extremely low scoring. I think Georgia will be able to score more than 3 points, however, and should win this one 'Between the Hedges.'
#3 USC @ #8 Ohio State. Probably the most anticipated non-conference game of the year will take place Saturday night in The Horseshoe in Columbus, Ohio. USC smoked the Buckeyes last season in L.A. 35-3. However, gone from that team is QB Mark Sanchez, LBs Rey Maualuga, Clay Matthews, and Brian Cushing. Freshman QB Matt Barkley looked impressive in a 56-3 rout of San Jose State but surely will face the loudest crowd he's ever faced in his life when he enters The 'Shoe. Ohio State struggled mightily in their opener against Navy, needing a two-point conversion interception returned to the house to escape with a 31-27 win. Terrelle Pryor looked good early but once head coach Jim Tressel put in back-up QB Joe Bauserman to get some reps it looked to have messed up Pryor's rhythm. Despite the close call with Navy, who is vastly underrated every year, I think the Buckeyes will play much better vs. the Trojans. It's tough to prepare and practice against the wishbone offense so I attribute that to the poor defensive play. Regardless of the reason, Ohio State's defense needs to step up to a much higher level if they want to win this one. Pryor also played well in this game and was about the only bright spot for OSU last season. I think the combination of his play-making ability and the loud, raucous Buckeye crowd will make the difference and Ohio State wins a very close game.
Other Game Picks:
#7 Penn State OVER Syracuse
Stanford OVER Wake Forest
#1 Florida OVER Troy
#14 Virginia Tech OVER Marshall
#22 Nebraska OVER Arkansas State
#2 Texas OVER Wyoming
#9 BYU OVER Tulane
#16 TCU OVER Virginia
Oregon OVER Purdue
#11 LSU OVER Vanderbilt
#22 Kansas OVER UTEP
#25 Missouri OVER Bowling Green
#15 Georgia Tech OVER Clemson
Record to date: 12-8
#19 North Carolina @ Connecticut. UNC is coming over a 40-6 drubbing of D-1AA Citadel. QB Tyler Yates didn't look very impressive in the win going 9-20 for 114 yards. He did throw two touchdowns but also a pick. The bright spot was RBs Shaun Draughn, who ran for 118 yards, and Ryan Houston who had 45 yards on only six carries and a pair of touchdowns. The Tar Heels defense is very fast and completely shut down Citadel. They will have more a challenge this week as two of UConn's RBs ran for over 100 yards. Jordan Todman ran for 157 yards and a touchdown and Andre Dixon had 100 yards. QB Zach Frazer was even less impressive than Yates, going 11-24 for only 127 yards and two touchdowns and three interceptions. I don't think there's much chance UConn is able to run wild on this defense which will lead to Frazer making even more mistakes. I like UNC.
Pittsburgh @ Buffalo. Turner Gill is one of the best coaches in America hands down. After starting 2-4 last season, he led the Bulls to a 7-5 regular season and then a historical upset of undefeated Ball State in the MAC Championship game which clinched their first bowl bid in years. A consistent underdog, Buffalo opened 2009 going to play @ UTEP as 9.5 underdogs, only to win 23-17. In a wide opened Big East, Pitt has been picked to finish in the top two or three or even to win the conference by some. The Panthers opened their season with a very impressive victory of a top FCS team in Youngstown State, who gave Ohio State trouble in their opener last year. Pitt's 38-3 victory prompted Youngstown State's coach to proclaim the Panther defense as one of the best in the country. With the loss of All-American RB LeSean McCoy, a lot of pressure was being put on the defense to step up and keep Pitt in games. Some of that pressure has been alleviated by the emergence of the diminutive freshman RB Dion Lewis. Lewis is only 5'8" 195lbs and debuted with 130 yards rushing and two touchdowns along with a receiving touchdown. Much maligned QB Bill Stull looked very good going 11-16 for 123 yards and a pair of touchdowns and an interception. Big play WR Jonathan Baldwin had 3 catches for 70 yards and will be looking for pay dirt this week for sure. The combination of the defense, Lewis, and Baldwin's big play ability will be too much to handle for Buffalo although it will be closer than people think.
Houston @ #5 Oklahoma State. Coming off one of the biggest wins in program history, Oklahoma State needs to take Houston very seriously to avoid a catastrophic upset and season-ruiner. Houston racked up over 530 yards of offense in a 55-7 pounding of FCS Northwestern State. Cougar QB Case Keenum threw for 447 yards and 4 touchdowns and was considered by some as a dark horse Heisman candidate. However, the Cowboys defense looked stellar shutting down Georgia and the Pokes offense looked even better, especially All-American WR Dez Bryant. QB Zac Robinson hooked up with Bryant for two big touchdowns, including the one that sealed the deal and made it 24-10. Houston's offense may produce some points but OK-State's offense will be way too much to handle and should produce a W.
#18 Notre Dame @ Michigan. Both teams are coming off of huge victories for their programs. ND shut out a pretty talented Nevada team 35-0 while Michigan embarrassed Western Michigan 31-7 in the midst of all the controversy with Rich Rodriguez. This is being touted as a very important game but I think that Notre Dame is going to beat Michigan up pretty good. With QB Jimmy Clausen and WRs Golden Tate and Malcolm Floyd I don't think UM has much of a chance to stop them. Defensively the Irish are coming off their first shut out in years like I said and should feast on Michigan's freshman QB Tate Forcier. Notre Dame will win big; put it in the books.
UCLA @ Tennessee. The Lane Kiffin era started just as any Vol's fan would have hoped with 63-7 win vs Western Kentucky. QB Jonathan Crompton threw for 5 touchdowns and 233 yards while RBs Montarrio Hardesty and Bryce Brown ran for 160 and 104 yards, respectively. The team ran for 380 yards as a whole and totaled 657 total yards. UCLA freshman QB Kevin Prince looked like exactly that, a freshman. He threw for 176 yards and a touchdown but also two interceptions. The defense played well in their 33-14 win vs San Diego State but will need Prince to not put them in short fields and bad situations Saturday. Rick Neuheisel has Los Angeles buzzing with the ads he's taken out about UCLA being the team in LA. He's off to a good start and could be in a good position to get a big win in SEC country with Tennessee possibly having an eye on next Saturday when they travel to the Swamp and meet the mighty Gators. I think that Kiffin will have his guys focused and they will win this one at home.
South Carolina @ #21 Georgia. These two teams are on complete opposite ends of the spectrum right now. The good news is that SC got a huge win on the road @ NC State on Thursday night and shut down star QB Russell Wilson and the Wolfpack offense to only 3 points. The bad news is that the offense was only able to produce 7 points. The defense held NC State to 133 yards of total offense. I don't care who you're playing, holding a team to 133 yards is great defense. The Gamecocks D is fast and physical. That's not good news for UGA and first year starter Joe Cox. Cox led the 'Dawgs on an 80-yard touchdown drive to start the game @ OK State but was able to muster only a field goal for nearly three and a half quarters. Unless Georgia's offense breaks out, this game is going to be extremely low scoring. I think Georgia will be able to score more than 3 points, however, and should win this one 'Between the Hedges.'
#3 USC @ #8 Ohio State. Probably the most anticipated non-conference game of the year will take place Saturday night in The Horseshoe in Columbus, Ohio. USC smoked the Buckeyes last season in L.A. 35-3. However, gone from that team is QB Mark Sanchez, LBs Rey Maualuga, Clay Matthews, and Brian Cushing. Freshman QB Matt Barkley looked impressive in a 56-3 rout of San Jose State but surely will face the loudest crowd he's ever faced in his life when he enters The 'Shoe. Ohio State struggled mightily in their opener against Navy, needing a two-point conversion interception returned to the house to escape with a 31-27 win. Terrelle Pryor looked good early but once head coach Jim Tressel put in back-up QB Joe Bauserman to get some reps it looked to have messed up Pryor's rhythm. Despite the close call with Navy, who is vastly underrated every year, I think the Buckeyes will play much better vs. the Trojans. It's tough to prepare and practice against the wishbone offense so I attribute that to the poor defensive play. Regardless of the reason, Ohio State's defense needs to step up to a much higher level if they want to win this one. Pryor also played well in this game and was about the only bright spot for OSU last season. I think the combination of his play-making ability and the loud, raucous Buckeye crowd will make the difference and Ohio State wins a very close game.
Other Game Picks:
#7 Penn State OVER Syracuse
Stanford OVER Wake Forest
#1 Florida OVER Troy
#14 Virginia Tech OVER Marshall
#22 Nebraska OVER Arkansas State
#2 Texas OVER Wyoming
#9 BYU OVER Tulane
#16 TCU OVER Virginia
Oregon OVER Purdue
#11 LSU OVER Vanderbilt
#22 Kansas OVER UTEP
#25 Missouri OVER Bowling Green
#15 Georgia Tech OVER Clemson
Record to date: 12-8
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